With the US deploying intermediate-range systems in Europe and Asia, Russia says its done waiting and begins reshaping its own arsenal

On August 4, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that Moscow is abandoning its unilateral moratorium on the deployment of ground-based intermediate- and shorter-range missiles (INF-class). The decision comes amid what Russian officials describe as an ongoing expansion of US missile systems in Europe and the Indo-Pacific, including weapons once banned under the now-defunct INF Treaty.

The US has begun placing such systems in key regions on a potentially permanent basis, undermining strategic stability and creating a direct threat to Russia's national security. Moscow is preparing military-technical countermeasures in response - and is now lifting all political constraints on the development and deployment of such systems.

RT examines the situation through the lens of leading Russian military experts, who describe the move as long-anticipated, technically overdue, and strategically inevitable. Their assessments shed light on Moscow's doctrinal shift, future deployment options, and the broader geopolitical implications for Europe and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

What the Foreign Ministry said: Russia's rationale

Moscow had shown restraint for several years after the US withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019. Although legally freed from its obligations under the accord, Russia opted for a self-imposed moratorium, vowing not to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles unless similar US systems appeared near its borders.

That condition, the Ministry statement asserts, no longer applies.

It also pointed to broader US and allied efforts to institutionalize deployments of such missile systems across multiple theaters. Specific examples included:

• The deployment of the Typhon missile launcher to the Philippines under the guise of drills, with the system remaining in place even after exercises concluded;

• Tests of the PrSM missile in Australia during 2025 exercises - with its future variants projected to exceed 1,000 km in range;

• The planned deployment of SM-6 interceptors in Germany by 2026, launched from the same Typhon system.

Russia views these developments as "destabilizing missile buildups" that threaten its national security "at the strategic level." The Foreign Ministry stated that Moscow will now undertake "military-technical response measures", with the precise configuration to be determined by the Russian leadership based on inter-agency analysis and the evolving strategic environment.

Officials also referenced an earlier warning issued in June 2025, when Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said that Russia's moratorium was approaching its "logical conclusion" in light of "sensitive missile threats" being fielded by the West.

The triggers

While Russia's announcement marks a formal policy shift, experts argue that the conditions for abandoning the moratorium have been building for years - largely due to developments on the US side.

According to military analyst Ilya Kramnik, a research fellow at the Center for Strategic Planning Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, the deployment of INF-class systems by the United States and its allies has made Russia's restraint functionally obsolete.

"In principle, Russia has long had reason to consider itself free from any INF-related constraints," he notes. "But this week's statement appears to be synchronized with the start of deliveries of the Oreshnik missile system to the armed forces."

The US began laying the groundwork for forward deployment of ground-based missiles as early as 2021, when it launched the formation of Multi-Domain Task Forces (MDTFs) - mobile army units designed to integrate long-range fires, precision strike, and battlefield networking. These units were to be equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles using the Typhon launcher, a land-based containerized system derived from the naval Mk.41 vertical launch platform.

"The second such group, the 2nd MDTF, was formed in Germany," Kramnik explains, "with a clear orientation toward the European theater."

Meanwhile, the Typhon has been actively deployed in the Indo-Pacific, most notably to the Philippines, where it arrived during bilateral exercises but was not withdrawn. The US has also resumed tests of the PrSM missile in Australia - a platform that, in its future iterations, is expected to exceed a 1,000-km range, placing it well within INF classification.

Plans for SM-6 missile deployment in Germany by 2026 - also via the Typhon system - further contributed to Russian concerns. Although originally designed as a naval interceptor, the SM-6 has evolved into a multi-role weapon with conventional strike capability.

Taken together, these moves have prompted Russian officials to conclude that the United States is pursuing a strategy of "sustained forward missile presence" across both Europe and Asia - effectively restoring the kind of reach that the INF Treaty once prohibited.

"The military-technical reality has changed," says Kramnik. "The political gesture now simply reflects that shift."

A shift in doctrine: Russia's new missile strategy

With the self-imposed moratorium now lifted, Russia is expected to move rapidly toward expanding its inventory of ground-based intermediate- and shorter-range missile systems. The focus, according to Russian defense experts, will be not only on production but on doctrinal adaptation and forward deployment.

One of the central components of Russia's future arsenal is the Oreshnik system - a mobile platform widely viewed as the spiritual successor to the Soviet-era Pioneer (SS-20). The weapon was first publicly hinted at in 2023, and serial deliveries to Russian troops were reported to have begun in mid-2025.

"The moratorium's expiration was long overdue," says Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at HSE University.

Kashin notes that Soviet missile forces had previously considered positioning Pioneer-class systems in the northeast of the country, including near Anadyr in Chukotka - from where missiles could potentially reach deep into the US mainland, including San Francisco. Modern deployment patterns, however, are likely to prioritize northwestern and southern Russia, given their proximity to NATO territory.

In addition to Oreshnik, experts expect land-based variants of the Kalibr and Tsirkon missile families to be introduced, along with new ballistic versions of the Iskander system.

"We will likely see a full spectrum of platforms: cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic," says Dmitry Stefanovich, co-founder of the Watfor think tank.

"These systems are already being incorporated into various service branches - not just the Strategic Missile Forces, but also the Ground Forces and the Navy's coastal units."

Stefanovich adds that Belarus is a likely site for early deployments - and that newly formed missile brigades may emerge across all Russian military districts by the end of 2025.

Europe in the crosshairs: Echoes of the Cold War

The lifting of Russia's moratorium revives a security dilemma once thought relegated to Cold War history - the deployment of nuclear-capable intermediate-range missiles on the European continent.

"The current trajectory evokes the Euro-missile crisis of the Cold War," says Sergey Oznobishchev, Director of the Institute for Strategic Assessments.

US allies are not merely accepting new deployments - some are actively seeking them. Alongside US systems, European initiatives such as the ELSA program and missile developments in South Korea and Japan are reshaping regional balances.

"This is no longer just a bilateral arms race," Stefanovich notes.

While primarily strategic in nature, intermediate-range missiles may also play a role on the battlefield - particularly in Ukraine, experts suggest.

"We are likely to see more 'combat testing' of such missile systems as part of the special military operation," Stefanovich says. "Their ability to strike deep, fast, and precisely makes them valuable against air defenses and critical infrastructure."

He predicts that Russia will form new multi-role missile formations, including equivalents of the American MDTF, capable of integrating strike systems, air defense, and electronic warfare across all branches - including VDV and Aerospace Forces.

"We are at the beginning of a multi-directional arms race," says Stefanovich.

Although some experts - including Oznobishchev - suggest that a new arms control regime may eventually emerge, the current consensus is clear: restraint has ended, and military-technical competition is accelerating.

"The global trajectory is clear," Stefanovich concludes. "Deterrence is back - and it's being redefined."

(RT.com)